SHFE tin falls back from highs; tight LME tin inventory supports cross-market price spread [SMM tin midday review]

On July 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508) was in the doldrums: it opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, 340 yuan lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day. During the trading session, it fluctuated rangebound within 267,900-266,100 yuan/mt, closing at 266,590 yuan/mt, down 1,550 yuan or 0.58%. Trading and open interest were sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The open interest of the most-traded contract decreased by 1,610 lots.

Traditional electronics sector: Consumer electronics (mobile phones/PCs) are in an off-season destocking cycle. Solder companies' orders weakened MoM, suppressing regular tin ingot purchases.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate cut: The US core PCE in May rose 2.7% YoY, slightly exceeding expectations. However, real personal consumption expenditures fell 0.3% MoM, strengthening the case for an interest rate cut. The market is pricing in a 78% probability of a rate cut in September. The US dollar index pulled back to around 104.3, supporting commodity prices.

Overnight gains: The main LME tin contract closed at $33,635/mt, down 0.34%, fluctuating downward.

Short-term outlook: The most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract is expected to fluctuate rangebound within 265,500-270,000 yuan, while LME tin is expected to fluctuate within $33,000-34,500. Focus on the guidance of US non-farm payrolls data on July 3 for macro sentiment, as well as the actual logistics progress of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region mines.